This year’s Oscars may be one of the hardest to predict in a very long time with several big categories still up for grabs. Here are my final predictions for the awards tomorrow night. Don’t forget IMR will be live-tweeting the ceremony! So follow us @instamovierev on Twitter.
Best Picture
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Why: EEAAO is the little indie that could, it’s won the PGA, DGA, WGA, and SAG. Unless there is an upset with All Quiet on the Western Front with ranked-choice voting, EEAAO will walk home with the biggest prize of the night. Banshees was just the better film.
Best Director
Will Win: Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Todd Field – Tár
Why: While the Daniels’ deft blend of humor and emotion is great, their directing is flashy, big, and not subtle anyway but they will win. The award should go to Todd Field for his tremendous achievement of the intricate Tár.
Best Actress
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Cate Blanchett – Tár
Why: Yeoh’s performance is great and has gained a lot of steam going into the awards but Blanchett’s performance as Lydia Tár is one of the greatest of all time. This is will be a nail-biter.
Best Actor
Will Win: Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Should Win: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Why: This is going to be a really really close category, and there is an argument on who’s the frontrunner. I think the Fraser narrative is too strong to ignore, but The Whale didn’t get a picture nomination. So Austin Butler as Elvis could be an upset. Farrell delivered the best performance though.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Why: No disrespect to the great Angela Basset or Jamie Lee Curtis but BAFTA winner Kerry Condon should take the prize. This is another really hard category to predict and it could really go either way but I’m putting my money on Condon.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Why: This will be the easiest award of the night, Quan’s comeback story has been the talk of the town for his wonderful performance in EEAAO. He has that speech ready to go.
Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Why: This is as good of a lock as we will get all night but it should go to Marcel which was one of the year’s best films.
Cinematography
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Elvis
Why: I’m just mad that Grieg Fraser’s gorgeous cinematography on The Batman was shut out.
Costume Design
Will Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Why: Ruth Carter won this award for the original Panther back in 2019, expect history to repeat itself.
Documentary
Will Win: Navalny
Should Win: Navalny
Why: It’s a timely, politically charged film, the kind that Oscar voters love.
Documentary Short Film
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Why: I didn’t see these films, and I feel bad about that. But this seems like the best bet.
Film Editing
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Why: While some older voters might be turned off by EEAAO’s more modern editing style I think it will sneak in a win. Top Gun was a more classic edit but I think overall the seamless editing should win.
International Feature Film
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Why: The only of the nominees that has a best picture nod, expect it to win.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: The Whale
Should Win: Elvis
Why: This award will predict the best actor winner and the makeup on The Whale was incredible but it was really just one character but overall Elvis’ makeup and hair was better.
Music (Orignal Score)
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Why: This is another close one but with a BAFTA win I think AQOTWF wins. Banshees’ score was a strong one though and was a character of its own in the film.
Music (Orignal Song)
Will Win: Naatu Naatu – RRR
Should Win: Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Why: RRR got shut out of the International Feature category, voters will make up of that here.
Production Design
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Why: Babylon is flashy and a period piece, voters will love it but Avatar’s world-building is incredible and the production design was a big part of that.
Short Film (Animated)
Will Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
Why: I didn’t see this category either so this is just based on research.
Short Film (Live Action)
Will Win: Le Pupille
Why: See above
Sound
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Why: The academy is still sticking with its asinine decision to keep sound mixing and editing as one category which is a shame. Top Gun’s sound design was meant for the theatrical and was extremely well done.
Visual Effects
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Why: Did you see Avatar?
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Women Talking
Why: This is a no-brainer, even with Glass Onion, Sarah Polley’s film blows it out of the water. Side note: Why the f*** was Top Gun: Maverick in this category?!
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will Win: TheBanshees of Inisherin
Should Win: TheBanshees of Inisherin
Why: Banshees’ deserves this one, it’s a subdued, personal, and darkly funny movie, it’s finally time for Martin McDonagh to win. But this was a really hard category with EEAAO and Tár also nominated. Any of those is a fine choice.
There you have it, my predictions. Tune in to the Oscars at 8pm EST on March 12th to see how many I got wrong.